The Polar Vortex that hit much of the Lower 48 states in January caused an incredible spike in natural gas spot prices with some markets ramping up to $135 per million Btu.
Gas deliveries increased to a record 134.3 billion cubic feet per day on January 7, according to Bentek Energy.
“When cold strikes and more people are connected to the system, you have more systemic gas demand, so it becomes a pipeline capacity issue,” said Jack Weixel, Bentek’s director of energy analysis. Weather-related demand will remain the biggest driver of price changes in 2014, according to Barclays Capital. “On a weather-adjusted basis, supply/demand balances for 2014 look very similar to 2013. Industrial demand remains very strong, but robust production growth still necessitates coal-to-gas displacement to balance the market. But with three winter months still ahead of us, weather anomalies remain a key risk that could alter the trajectory of balances and prices significantly,” the investment firm said in a research note.
Unfortunately for natural gas liquid (NGL) producers, prices failed to keep track and spread margins tumbled at both NGL hubs at Conway, Kansas, and Mont Belvieu, Texas. While Texas prices were a mixed bag with heavy NGLs experiencing small gains, Kansas prices fell across the board.
For the most part, NGL prices returned to average levels from December. The biggest decrease was for ethane, which fell 12% to 17 cents per gallon with extremely low volatility and a negative 14 cents per gallon margin. This price was the lowest in more than a year and the economics in the Midcontinent dictate the full rejection of ethane in the region with the exception of contract requirements and pipeline specifications.
It is not that hard to imagine the Conway ethane market being a thing of the past. Even with the strong possibility of Enterprise Products Partners building ethane export capacity, it is possible that ethane will continue to bypass the Midcontinent for a long time as there is increased transportation capacity to the Gulf Coast.
The ethane market remains challenged at Mont Belvieu as well, with prices falling 8% to 30 cents per gallon with a nil margin. Interestingly, the biggest driver for ethane at the hub has been ethane-propane mix, which has been trading anywhere from four cents to nine cents per gallon more than ethane.
This has been largely driven by propane, which has been strong this winter as both heating demand and export demand have been high. Although propane prices fell slightly at both hubs, they were at the highest level in years. The Conway price fell 1% to $1.43 per gallon and the Mont Belvieu price decreased 2% to $1.24 per gallon.
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