The federal government’s approval of minimally processed condensate exports, first sought by Enterprise Products Partners LP and Pioneer Natural Resources Co., is “a potential game changer” that could have a significant impact on world crude and product trading.
That’s the opinion of an energy researcher at GlobalData, a London-based research and consulting firm.
Carmine Rositano, GlobalData’s downstream oil and gas analyst, added that U.S. condensate exports could have an immediate impact in Latin America where the product could be used to dilute heavy, sour crudes produced by Mexico, Venezuela, Ecuador and Colombia.
The Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) ruled at the end of June that minimally processed condensate qualifies as a petroleum product rather than crude. Therefore, it can be exported legally. Congress banned crude oil exports, with certain rare exceptions, during the 1974 oil crisis. Petroleum product exports remain legal.
Enterprise reportedly sold its first condensate cargo, 400,000 bbl, to a Japanese trading firm barely a week after the ruling.
An RBN Energy report recently observed that the ruling “put Enterprise in the catbird seat” due to its extensive infrastructure serving Eagle Ford producers with heavy production of gas liquids and light crude.
“Both companies send condensate produced from the Eagle Ford Shale play through stabilizers with distillation units, and the BIS determined that the condensate is sufficiently processed to be classified as a product,” Rositano explained. “Stabilizers are required to separate light hydrocarbon gases from heavier hydrocarbons to meet pipeline requirements, but not all stabilizers have distillation units. Companies will now be assessing the economic viability of adding these units, given the prospect of exporting to the global market.”
But moving beyond that promising Latin American market, “U.S. condensate would be able to compete with Middle East exports into Asia, based on Dubai crude prices, and could also be shipped into Europe to reduce regional dependence on crude supplies from Russia,” the analyst predicted.
However, U.S. condensate exports are a new game and the results aren’t known yet, cautioned a newly released Barclays Energy Market Outlook report.
“Processing plants, upstream investment and continued import displacement depend on how policymakers address the issue of crude oil and condensate exports. How much processed condensate can be exported will depend on the extent to which Enterprise and Pioneer’s Private Letter Ruling from the Department of Commerce is applicable to other company’s operations,” the report said.
But whatever impact condensate exports may have, the nation’s swelling volume of light crude and gas liquids from unconventional plays already is producing significant market swings in light product categories. Consider propane, for example, where U.S. exports are backing out sales by long-time, foreign competitors.
A recent Enterprise investor presentation cited a Waterborne Energy Inc. study that ranked the U.S. as the world’s largest propane exporter in 2013—well ahead of such perennial LPG sellers as Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Norway. U.S. LPG export levels are projected to climb still higher this year.
The U.S. was a minor player in propane exports until recent years when swelling light hydrocarbon production from the unconventional shale plays began to exceed domestic demand.
Even with strong propane shipments overseas, inventories continue to climb. Recent U.S. Energy Information Administration numbers show propane inventories at the top of a five-year rolling average and may set an all-time record of some 70 MMbbl.
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