British wholesale gas contracts rose on May 22, ahead of a planned shutdown of an important Norwegian supply route this week and potentially higher exports to Europe until mid-June.

Gas for immediate delivery rose by 0.75 pence (US$0.01) to 58.00 pence (US$0.78) per therm at 3:45 a.m. CT, even though the system was oversupplied.

Gas for May 23 rose by 1.90 pence (US$0.03) to 58.90 p/therm (US$0.79).

June gas was 1.45 pence (US$0.02) higher at 57.95 p/therm (US$0.78).

Analysts attributed higher gas prices to the planned shutdown of Norway’s Langeled pipeline to Britain from May 17 which will see less gas arriving in Britain.

The long-planned closure of the InterconnectorUK (IUK) pipeline between Britain and Belgium from mid-June could also be incentivising European consumers to boost imports and replenish reserves, analysts at Thomson Reuters said.

“Gas import demand from the Netherlands is likely to drive U.K. prompt gas prices up in the first half of June and encourage heavy mid-range storage withdrawals,” Katarzyna Piaskowska, Thomson Reuters gas analyst, said.

A senior analyst at a major European utility believed the Norwegian pipeline outage was the main factor driving gas prices higher.

“It seems like the IUK maintenance next month is a source of concern but the shutdown was planned a long time ago so I'm not convinced,” he added, saying that rising crude oil prices are also setting the tone for forward gas contracts.

Brent crude oil is again edging toward $80 a barrel on concerns Venezuela’s oil output could drop further and potential U.S. sanctions on the OPEC member.

Britain’s gas system was oversupplied by 5.1 million cubic meters per day with demand estimated at 178.3 million cubic meters per day and supply at 183.4 million cubic meters per day, National Grid data showed.

Average temperatures this week are on a rising trend and set to top 17 degrees Celsius by the weekend, Thomson Reuters Eikon data shows.

Therefore, heating demand is forecast 3 million cubic meters lower compared over the weekend.

Exports through the IUK pipeline to continental Europe are 2 million cubic meters higher than May 21 at 36 million cubic meters.

Sparse LNG deliveries into Britain are also adding support to prices. Rising Asian spot LNG prices this month will only make it more difficult for Britain to attract supply, a factor that could support front-month prices.

Day-ahead gas at the Dutch TTF hub rose by €0.47 (US$0.55) to €22.70 (US$26.75) per megawatt hour.

The benchmark Dec. 18 EU carbon contract was €0.30 (US$0.35) higher at €15.87 (US$18.70) a tonne, still at a seven-year high.