While the U.S. is well on its way to becoming one of the top oil and gas producers and exporters, it will soon take a backseat to the developing world—particularly Asia—when it comes to shaping demand for energy for years to come.

Rice University’s Baker Institute recently published a report looking at energy demand trends and patterns and found that as the developing world’s population grows in places like Africa, Asia and Latin America so will their needs for fossil fuels—coal, oil and natural gas. Asia, primarily on the strength of China and India, will be the biggest of energy consumers.

The report was co-authored by Anna Mikulska, a nonresident fellow in energy studies, and Michael D. Maher, senior program advisor for the Center of Energy Studies. They examined trends in energy patterns based on 2018 energy outlooks prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the International Energy Agency and BP.

“Asia is different from countries in Africa and Latin America because even though sometimes the growth rates are similar, in Asia it’s much larger,” Mikulska said. “Africa and even Latin America, it’s still at the level where China was several decades ago. But they will be moving in that direction and we will see the base increasing.

“But at this moment it is Asia, particularly China and also India that is growing to become really the leader of growth in terms of as demands grow.”

According to the U.N. Department of Economic and Social Affairs, the global population is currently at 7.6 billion and will reach 8.6 billion in 2030 and then 9.8 billion in 2050. About 90% of the growth will come from Asia and Africa.

The growth in the U.S. will only contribute about 3% to the global population. The study finds that the U.S. and other developed countries are decreasing use of fossil fuel and are using more renewables, more efficient cars and electricity.

Those advances aren’t there in lesser developed parts of Asia, so the cheaper option for energy is what will be available.

“Often times what we hear, especially in the popular press, is all these nice things on development on the renewables, but we don’t realize this is in the developed world that can afford a very expensive options,” Mikulska said. “Renewable energy can be installed and ran, often subsidized.

“The developing world doesn’t necessarily have the resources or the ability to include renewable energy,” She continued.

Mikulska said this won’t necessarily mean higher costs for the developing worlds because more demand could provide them better bargaining power when buying energy for the U.S., which is fast becoming one of the world’s leaders in exporting oil and gas.

“Thing with places like China or India, even though they will be dependent on energy on imports of energy from other places, their markets are so large that they are not necessarily trend takers,” she said. “They have the bargaining power to be able to influence the prices whether through bargaining or economy will influence the prices.

“So at some point if China’s economy slumps or India’s economy slumps, and they cannot bring in as much energy and they can’t import as much energy we will see increasing prices globally. They will be very careful and already are in the way they approach their energy imports.”

Mikulska said China has already determined the best source of gas for its people. The country is bringing in LNG from the west.. China is also working with Russia on a pipeline that will bring in natural gas through Siberia.

“China is very wary of how, and from where, they will access gas and whether it will make them totally dependent,” Mikulska said. “Because you are really truly dependent on energy if you are dependent especially on one source. That’s when you are dependent and also can politically influenced by that country.

“But when you have many suppliers these suppliers, especially for the big markets, are more likely to fight for this market because it means they can import benefits on it. The U.S. would be very happy to provide LNG to China because the natural gas will not be able to be absorbed by the domestic market so they need to push it out and China is a great market to find.

“So it works both ways. It’s security of supply and it’s security of demanding for exporting companies, too.”

Terrance Harris can be reached at tharris@hartenergy.com.