As winter approaches, propane has a blind date with destiny, and in the immortal words of William H. Macy, it looks like she’s ordered the lobster.

“Propane prices could continue to show large up and down movements over the next several months,” En*Vantage said in a report. “Conditions are such that U.S. winter demand pulls will compete with exports for the incremental propane barrel, which will have to come from storage. The greater the seasonal demand pull, the more dramatic the rise in propane prices has to be to curtail exports.”

While NGL generally showed little movement compared to the previous week’s averages, propane continued to pop, driving up the average weekly price of the hypothetical NGL barrel to over $30 at both the Mont Belvieu, Texas, and Conway, Kan., hubs for the first time in eight months.

At Mont Belvieu, the barrel’s four-week streak marked the longest stay above $30 since November 2014.

With the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasting a winter (Oct. 1 through March 31) that will be, on average, 13% colder than last winter, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) anticipates higher heating costs as temperatures move closer to the average of the past 10 winters and fuel costs rise.

Inventories and exports dictate propane’s forecast. En*Vantage said it expects inventory to have peaked a month ago, with major increases unlikely for the rest of the year unless exports drop off significantly. Days of supply for propane are at 40, or one-third below the level last year at this time.

En*Vantage anticipates some export cancellations in October, as the run-up in price squeezes the spread overseas. Still, balances will be tight, and if Asia and Europe experience chilly weather ... well, things could get interesting this winter.

“For retailers that are waiting for much cheaper propane prices, don’t count on it,” En*Vantage advised.

Ethane continued to be mired in a post-Harvey funk, especially at Conway, as natural gas and crude oil prices showed weakness, but En*Vantage said it was encouraged by improving market fundamentals.

Specifically, waterborne ethane exports set a record by averaging 186,000 barrels per day (bbl/d) in September, led by a surge at Morgan’s Point on the Houston Ship Channel. Cracking demand, which is 1.25 million bbl/d, should rise to 1.41 million bbl/d by year-end. Couple that with exports and total year-end demand is looking like a total of 1.6 million bbl/d.

“Ethane demand can only improve from this point forward,” En*Vantage said.

Storage of natural gas in the Lower 48 increased by 87 billion cubic feet (Bcf) in the week ended Oct. 6, the EIA reported, above the Bloomberg consensus of 81 Bcf and the 2016 increase of 79 Bcf. It is also at the five-year average increase of 87 Bcf and resulted in a total of 3.595 trillion cubic feet (Tcf). The figure is 4.1% below the 3.748 Tcf figure at the same time in 2016 and 0.2% below the five-year average of 3.603 Tcf.

Joseph Markman can be reached at jmarkman@hartenergy.com and @JHMarkman.