From the beginning of this decade, discoveries of huge quantities of offshore gas in the Rovuma Basin off Mozambique’s northern Cabo Delgado province promised to transform the country’s fortunes.

Yet although some progress has been made in translating the gas finds into real-life operations with actual profits, Mozambique is still several years away from reaping the earnings so many are counting on.

The bulk of the gas will need to be transported by ship in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG) — much of it to energy-hungry consumers in Asia. That will entail solving a logistical, technical and financial puzzle before the projects can start. Mozambique’s political and economic instability has not made the task any easier.

One of the factors holding back development is the recent expansion in the world’s supply of LNG. Global supplies are on course to rise by 50% from 2014 to 2021, with large projects coming on stream in Australia, Indonesia, Russia and elsewhere. Every two or three months a new LNG “train”, which condenses gas into its liquid form, starts production.

“The LNG glut has meant that the Mozambique onshore projects have basically gone on ice,” says Giles Farrer, research director for global LNG at Wood Mackenzie, an energy consultancy. The two main consortiums, which plan to bring gas onshore to be condensed into LNG, are seeking long-term purchase contracts with buyers before they can get the necessary project financing in place.

Gas has been discovered in two adjacent blocks, Area 1 and Area 4, each developed by a separate consortium and each with proven reserves of about 75tn cubic feet — enough, experts say, to supply Britain, France, Germany and Italy for the best part of 20 years.

Inside Area 4, sometimes called the Mamba Complex, is the Coral field, which lies too far from the coast for its gas to be economically piped ashore. That means condensing the gas in situ on a floating LNG plant.

This June, Italy’s Eni, the operator of the Mamba Complex, signed a “final investment decision” — the holy grail of the industry — on an $8bn deal for a floating LNG facility that will be manufactured in South Korea. The aim is to start producing $1.5 billion worth of gas a year from 2022 and Eni has secured a purchase contract with BP, which will buy gas for 20 years.

While the development of offshore liquefaction facilities is pushing ahead, Mozambique’s plans to build larger onshore projects, aimed to liquefy gas piped from the offshore fields, are progressing more slowly.

Wood Mackenzie estimates that going ahead with two onshore liquefication plants, plus the smaller floating LNG project, will cost up to $40 billion. “To put that kind of investment in place you need a fairly cast-iron legislative framework,” says Mr Farrer. This is one reason the projects have appeared to stall.

Still, significant progress has been made during several years of discussions to get a satisfactory regulatory framework in place, he says.

Neither consortium has secured the long-term contracts needed to unlock financing, although Anadarko, the U.S. operator of Area 1, is believed to have a purchase agreement from PTT, the Thai state-owned oil and gas company, which is also a member of the Anadarko consortium.

Progress has begun to pick up pace this year. In March, ExxonMobil, a world leader in supplying LNG, paid $2.8bn for a 25 per cent indirect stake from Eni in Area 4. Exxon will handle the construction of the onshore liquefaction plants. Other members of the consortium are China National Petroleum Corp, which paid Eni $4.2 billion for a 20% stake in 2013, when gas prices were higher, as well as the state oil company, Empresa Nacional de Hidrocarbonetos de Moçambique, Kogas of South Korea and Galp Energia of Portugal, each with 10%.

Meanwhile, Anadarko is edging towards a final investment decision on Area 1. In June, Mitch Ingram, Anadarko’s executive vice-president for global LNG, said the company had finalised two agreements with the government. “This is a key milestone on the path to a final investment decision for our initial two-train LNG project,” he said.

Besides Anadarko, which has a 26.5% share, other stakeholders in the Area 1 consortium are Mitsui of Japan, with 20%, Empresa Nacional de Hidrocarbonetos, with 15%, and PTT, with 8.5%. ONGC Videsh, an affiliate of India’s national oil company, and two other Indian energy concerns hold the remaining 30%.

Analysts warn that nothing is likely to happen for at least six months, and probably not until 2019. Once a commitment is made, it will take up to five years for the first LNG deliveries from onshore processing, which would put the first revenues midway through the next decade.

Mr Farrer at Wood Mackenzie says that despite the delays and uncertainty there are favourable signs. Chinese demand has risen and the prospect of Asian buyers making long-term purchase agreements has improved. “We should see momentum building again around Mozambique’s LNG,” he says.