Colder weather and increased exports will bolster natural gas prices in 2017 and 2018, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts in a report.
Dry natural gas production is also expected to increase in 2017 and 2018 after a decrease last year. The EIA attributes the rise to its forecast of higher prices as well as the infrastructure buildout taking place in the Marcellus and Utica gas producing regions.
The EIA expects the benchmark Henry Hub price to average $3.55 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2017 and $3.73/MMBtu in 2018. Henry Hub averaged $2.51/MMBtu in 2016, the lowest average since 1999. The EIA attributes that to a mild winter which resulted in record-high natural gas inventory levels in March.
The Henry Hub price rallied in December 2016, however, peaking at $3.68 per MMBtu near the end of the month. The EIA expects that late trend to set the standard this year and continue to rise next year.
Natural gas rose from an average $2/MMBtu in first-quarter 2016 to $2.88 in the third quarter, pushed up by summer weather and lower production. Cold weather in the northern U.S. from September through December pushed up demand for gas for heating and cut into inventories, the EIA said. Henry Hub’s average of $3.59/MMBtu in December was its first month above $3 since December 2014.
A recent analysis by BTU Analytics, however, observed a worrisome trend in Marcellus well permitting. Analyst Matthew Hoza, in his examination of permitting trends in Pennsylvania, noted that the process has become more time consuming since 2011, mostly because of the increased time needed for wellsite permits. The time needed to gain drilling permits was relatively constant, in the range of three to four months.
That data—permit filings from second-half 2016—provided a near-term outlook for Marcellus production, with concentration in northeastern Pennsylvania (Susquehanna County) and southwestern Pennsylvania (Washington County) likely to continue at high levels. That also affects major pipeline projects scheduled to come online in 2017 and 2018, Hoza said.
However, BTU has already expressed doubts about major greenfield projects, like the PennEast and Atlantic Coast pipelines, gaining the permit approvals necessary to complete construction on time.
The EIA forecasts natural gas exports will increase as additional capacity comes online at Cheniere Energy Inc.’s (AMEX: LNG) Sabine Pass, La., plant; in second-half 2018, the Cove Point LNG project in Maryland comes online, and the Cameron LNG and Freeport LNG projects on the Gulf Coast come online in second-half 2018. Pipeline exports to Mexico will also rise, the EIA said.
Joseph Markman can be reached at jmarkman@hartenergy.com and @JHMarkman.
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