How quickly can a near-record surplus of natural gas in storage be drawn down? About 12 weeks. That’s how long it took gas in storage to decrease from more than 3.8 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) to just under 1.7 Tcf, according to the most recent data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

This drawdown coincided with the dramatic winter weather experienced throughout the Midwest and Northeast as a result of Artic systems making their way south.

As more utilities convert their power plants to gas-fired generation, gas demand will increasingly be put under pressure in cases of extreme heat or cold. Some industry observers feared that storage levels would be even lower as producers increasingly focus on liquids-rich plays like the Bakken and Eagle Ford. However, a shift toward liquids and crude production has not seen a drop-off in natural gas production in one of these plays.

Indeed, despite steep decline rates and less focus on dry gas wells, gas production out of the Eagle Ford is on track to increase by 1.4 billion cubic feet (Bcf) per day to 6.8 Bcf per day, according to Barclays Capital’s February 18 Gas and Power Kaleidoscope. This report noted that this increase is a result of improved drilling efficiency and new oil well drilling that has increased the amount of associated gas produced.

“EIA’s Drilling Productivity Report shows that since 2010 oil production per rig has risen consistently, while natural gas production per rig remains below its 2009 peak, even after rebounding in the past two years,” the Barclays report said. This occurred at the same time that gas wells in the play are producing less gas than those that came online previously as oil wells overtook gas wells in driving gas production in the Eagle Ford.

“Vintage production charts show that while associated gas production has had steeper growth in the past two years, it has shown shallower declines,” Barclays said. Associated gas production that came online in 2011 declined by 58% by the end of 2012 compared to a 58% decline during the same timeframe for gas well gas. Similarly, associated gas that came online in 2012 dropped by 24% by July 2013 compared to a 32% drop in gas well gas production in the same time period.

The report noted that these figures were influenced by the timing of well completions as a number of 2012 wells came online in the last quarter of the year, which caused the decline rates to be skewed. In order to better ascertain the real production declines, Barclays Capital grouped individual wells by year of first production and aligned the peak production of each well as the first month of output to create vintage decline curves.

This data revealed that Eagle Ford initial production (IP) rates steadily improved from 2008 to 2011, at which point the gains plateaued. “While this could be a sign that wells in the play are reaching their potential, it could also be a result of two other dynamics: a shift to drilling oil wells, and down-spacing (drilling wells closer to each other) … Note that the flatlining of IP rates is not an indicator of slowing drilling efficiency gains, as companies could drill more wells per rig,” the report said.

Oil wells in the play produce approximately one-third of the gas production of a gas well and have steeper decline rates in the first year than gas wells. The study found that gas wells saw decline rates of 65% in 2010-2012 and oil wells reported decline rates by 72% in the same time period. However, down-spacing typically increases overall resource recovery, but lowers the output of the individual wells.

Based on these figures, the report has three likely outcomes for production out of the Eagle Ford in 2014 based on the assumption that the rig count remains largely unchanged at 290. Under this scenario, gas production would increase by 1.2 Bcf per day year-on-year to an average of 6.6 Bcf per day for the year. Should drilling productivity increase by 10%, production would increase by 1.4 Bcf per day year-on-year to 6.8 Bcf per day for the year. Should drilling productivity increase by 20%, the report anticipates production to increase by 1.6 Bcf per day year-on-year to an average of 7 Bcf per day in 2014. A decline to 260 rigs would lower production to 1.2 Bcf per day year-on-year.

Overall, unless there is a drastic change in drilling activity, production out of the Eagle Ford in 2014 is likely to continue to grow at a similar rate as 2013. Based on this one significant U.S. play it is highly likely that gas storage could reload this summer with minimal increases in drilling activity, barring temperatures that well above average.