Before the beginning of last week, Stratas Advisors forecasted that the price of Brent crude would rise toward $48.30. The forecast was based on expectations that traders were shifting to a more bullish sentiment.
Additionally, Stratas Advisors expected that the U.S. dollar would not be putting downward pressure on the crude prices with traders waiting to see hear the upcoming speech of Janet Yellen on Aug. 26. In actuality, the price movement of Brent crude proved to be more positive than the firm forecasted.
The price of Brent crude started the week at $46.97 then moved to $48.35 on Aug. 15 and continue to increase to $50.89 on Aug. 17 before moving sideways to close the week at $50.53.
The market seemed to ready to latch onto the talk of a freeze in OPEC production even without any concrete evidence of an actual plan for reining in supply.
Stratas Advisors also forecasted that the Brent-WTI differential would trade between $1.25 and $2 with respect to the October contract. In actuality, the Brent-WTI differential started the week at $1.79 then increased to $2.33 by Aug. 17 before narrowing to close the week at $1.77.
The inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) provided support for the Brent-WTI differential narrowing, indicating that during the previous week inventories of crude in the U.S. declined by 2.51 million barrels, which reverses three straight weeks of inventory increases.
For the upcoming week Stratas Advisors expects the price of Brent crude oil will trade between $48.50 and $50.65. The firm also expects that the Brent-WTI differential will continue to trade between $1.25 and $2 with respect to the October contract.
In this video Stratas Advisors’ executive vice president, John Paisie, explains the factors affecting oil prices for the upcoming week.
Visit StratasAdvisors.com for more supporting information.
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