HOUSTON—The “keep it in the ground” movement has echoed from Sen. Bernie Sanders’ presidential bid to protests of pipelines, disruptions of federal lease sales and environmental groups demanding that oil, natural gas and coal remain buried.

The problem with the grounder movement is the calamity that would likely unfold with a world left in the dark, Bruce Culpepper, president of Shell Oil Co., told an audience at the Energy Tax Conference sponsored by Bloomberg BNA and Mayer Brown.

In 2015, fossil fuels were responsible for generating 67% of U.S. electricity.

Solar and wind combined to generate 5.3% of the 4 trillion kilowatt hours and all renewables together contributed 7%, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Culpepper said Shell believes in addressing climate concerns, but he’s not up for the industry being painted as “a bunch of bad guys who just need to leave it in the ground.” Shell Oil Co. is the U.S. affiliate of Royal Dutch Shell Plc (NYSE: RDS.A) and employs about 20,000 people, mostly in the Houston and Gulf Coast area.

“If we were to do that, guess what, everybody that consumes energy, their prices would go up or they’re going to go without energy,” he said. “That impacts the people with the lowest incomes the hardest.”

Bruce Culpepper, president, Shell Oil Co, Energy Tax Conference, Bloomberg, Mayor Brown

And it would be impractical. For those committed to the idea of abandoning fossil fuels, Culpepper suggested finding a cozy spot for resettlement.

“I say we find a place where they can live and be comfortable when the lights go off because the sun doesn’t shine or the wind doesn’t blow,” he said.

Shell is actively addressing climate change and how to best respond. Part of the company’s reasoning behind February’s $70 billion purchase of BG Group Plc was the allure of BG’s expansive LNG trading portfolio.

The acquisition of BG Group makes Shell the largest player in the LNG space. Shell is now more weighted to natural gas than oil and regards gas as a natural bridging fuel as the world struggles to manage growth while also curbing greenhouse emissions.

The company has already started to talk about itself not as just an oil and gas company, but as an energy company.

“I’d say we’re drifting more toward gas and drifting more toward a broader range of energy solutions over time,” Culpepper said.

Plausible Dependability

The future is a slippery thing, whether viewed through astrological charts, the grotesque characters on tarot cards or on the lines crisscrossing a palm.

Culpepper is no fortuneteller, he said.

But while Shell steers clear of making predictions, its scenario building is based on plausible assumptions of future world events. Or, as Culpepper describes it, “quantifiable, probable assumptions.”

Population, energy demand and emissions are variables it plays with to get a glimpse of what one possible future would resemble.

Population, for instance, will grow to somewhere around 9 billion by 2050, Culpepper said.

Because of the increased population, energy demand will likely double.

“Most of that population growth, most of that demand for increased energy is going to take place in what are currently developing or underdeveloped countries,” he said.

People in those countries will have the same hopes, dreams and aspirations for a lifestyle that is taken for granted in the U.S. and other developed nations.

To make those economies function, they will need energy.

“If you don’t have electricity, you don’t have running water. [If] you don’t have clean water, you’re really are not going to have a sustainable, developing economy,” Culpepper said.

Shell’s strategy encompasses power and progress with the idea that more energy needs to be produced with fewer emissions.

Those forces compete within Shell and other companies and will do so for the next several decades, Culpepper said. What’s clear is that doing nothing will not address climate change and switching to a renewable-only power plan isn’t feasible.

“You also can’t just leap over the so-called hydrocarbon era and say we’re going to shut it all off and renewables will be the answer,” Culpepper said.

A Chaotic Way

Climate change remains a polarizing and mostly political topic.

However, Culpepper said societal expectations appear to be changing to a point that people want to live on a planet that humanity isn’t destroying.

“Whether you believe in the science or not, there’s enough cause and effects that people are seeing to say … I’m kind of tired of being flooded and tired of the tornados and hurricanes and tired of the rising sea levels. I expect my government to deal with this,” he said.

Shell’s move into natural gas has been designed to meet those needs and enable electrification while also investing in areas such as carbon capture and storage.

The current election cycle has many people jumping on a bandwagon that demands fossil fuel production cease—renewables will take care of the rest.

Culpepper said that ramping up renewables, particularly solar and wind, would only go so far.

The “intermittency problem” caused by lack of sunlight or wind may eventually be solved through innovation, such as batteries with greater storage capacity.

“The power generation sector when you look at it from a consumer point of view, only represents about 20% of the total energy consumed in the world,” he said. “So, yeah, you can continue to put renewables into that but you can’t overcome the need for something to overcome the gaps.”

That leaves now.

“At the moment there just isn’t a clear pathway to just forgetting fossil fuels,” he said. “There is something that needs to get done to reconcile those. We call it the energy transition.”

Natural gas is seen by Shell as one way forward. Because of coal-to-gas switching, the power sector has already met its pre-Paris Accords emission reduction targets.

However, the high intensity power needs of manufacturing, including production of steel, chemicals and cement require hydrocarbons because of the heat and fuel efficiency required.

Even with great technological strides, including more electric vehicles, five decades from now Shell research suggests power generation will shift.

“But in our modeling, fossil fuels will still represent 60% to 70% of the chunk of underlying energy even in the year 2050 or 2060,” he said, adding that’s if population and economic growth are more or less as forecasted.

“We’re not going to be out of the hub of the fossil fuel era any time soon,” he said.

Culpepper said that it is possible to grapple with the competition between growth and impact on climate, but only if the world sees unprecedented coordination, collaboration and innovation over the next several decades.

Simply having the U.S. go down the path alone won’t alter the outcome. The world has to be more aggressive in requiring other nations to live up to their promises through rigorous enforcement.

“It probably won’t play out that way. It is definitely plausible,” he said. “But it may also play out in a very chaotic way.”

Darren Barbee can be reached at dbarbee@hartenergy.com.