Western Canadian crude production is on course to increase by 1 million barrels per day (MMbbl/d) to 4.8 MMbbl/d by 2020, which will likely lead to a resurgence in the crude-by-rail sector, IHS Markit said in a new report.

That conclusion is predicated on the region’s constrained pipeline systems’ inability to keep up with supply despite planned major projects—Alberta Clipper Expansion, Keystone XL, Energy East and Trans Mountain Expansion.

Western Canadian producers turned to railroads to move their product to market in 2012, IHS Markit said in its “Pipelines, Prices, and Promises” report. Rail transportation peaked at 230 Mbbl/d in 2014 (of the North American total of 1.2 MMbbl/d) before the global oil price collapse led to a decline in production.

But those rail volumes will rise again, even if the four pipeline projects with total capacity of 2.9 MMbbl/d come into service between 2019 and 2022.

“None of these proposed pipelines change the likelihood that a resurgence of crude by rail out of western Canada is expected through the end of the decade,” the report said. “With the earliest of any proposed pipelines potentially online in 2019, western Canadian supply growth seems destined to overtake available capacity, and increasing movements of crude by rail are expected—and with that prices should decline.”

How much the rail sector benefits from Western Canada’s surge in output may depend on pipeline project delays. IHS Markit acknowledged a new sense of optimism in the industry, in part attributed to the pro-energy stance of the new Trump administration, but warns that “none of the proposed projects are done deals.”

The report’s authors could find no material difference in the time it takes to get a project approved in Canada or the U.S., but said that the single greatest source of uncertainty and the lengthiest part of the process has come after regulators have made recommendations and the decision comes to elected officials. Indeed, even the granting of a permit is not as straightforward as it might appear.

“Permits are not a blank check,” the report said. “They are subject to oversight and typically come with a number of conditions.”

The conditions, which address environmental, social and economic concerns, can rise into the hundreds. IHS Markit cited the Trans Mountain Expansion project, which was subject to 157 conditions.

Projects can also be prolonged by civil disobedience, as in the case of demonstrators opposed to Energy Transfer’s Dakota Access Pipeline in North Dakota. Canadian courts ordered the withdrawal of permits for Enbridge’s Northern Gateway Pipeline after finding that the government failed to adequately consult with First Nations about the project.

TransCanada Corp.’s Keystone XL was approved by Canada’s National Energy Board then denied approval twice by the U.S. State Department during the Obama administration, an action that even a user of a competing pipeline, Enterprise Products CEO Jim Teague, described as a “crime” during an appearance on April 18 in Houston.

TransCanada recently received approval to proceed with Keystone XL but still needs state-level permits in Nebraska and opponents are almost certain to challenge the project in court. Kinder Morgan’s Trans Mountain Expansion faces at least eight filings for judicial review and the Alberta Clipper Expansion still requires a presidential permit.

“There is no guarantee that these projects and other expansions will advance as proposed,” the report said. “These projects remain controversial and may face additional challenges.”

Joseph Markman can be reached at jmarkman@hartenergy.com and @JHMarkman.