The outlook for domestic crude production remains positive and is still improving, according to the most recent “Short-Term Energy Outlook” from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), released on Sept. 9.

Production in August reached an average of about 8.6 million barrels per day (MMbbl/d), the report said, marking the highest monthly production since July 1986. The August daily average is up 1.1 MMbbl/d—about 15%—from the 2013 daily production average of 7.5 MMbbl/d. Given the increase, the EIA has revised its 2015 projection from last month’s “Short-Term Energy Outlook” by 200,000 bbl/d, up to 9.5 MMbbl/d. The 2014 and 2015 forecasts are 70,000 bbl/d and 250,000 bbl/d higher than in last month’s report, respectively. If U.S. production reaches the current forecast, the 2015 production average would be the highest annual average for crude oil production since 1970.

“The U.S. oil production forecast for 2015 was revised up by 250,000 barrels per day, with total output expected to be at the highest level since 1970,” EIA Administrator Adam Sieminski said in a statement. “Rising monthly crude oil production, which will approach 10 million barrels a day in late 2015, will help cut U.S. fuel imports next year to the lowest level since 1968.”

The growth in domestic liquids production has led to a significant decline in petroleum imports, according to the report. The share of total U.S. liquids consumption met by imports fell from 60% in 2005 to an average of 32% in 2013, and is expected to continue to decline to 21% in 2015.

“U.S. production levels are astounding,” Bill O’Grady, chief market strategist at Confluence Investment Management in St. Louis, Mo., which oversees $2.6 billion, told Bloomberg about the revised forecast. “We will see further revisions, because these technologies get better over time.’’

The report also provided a revised figure for the 2013 U.S. consumption of petroleum and other liquids, raising it by 74,000 bbl/d to 18.96 million bbl/d. The revisions included a 69,000 bbl/d increase in gasoline consumption, a 66,000 bbl/d increase in consumption of special naphthas and a 47,000 bbl/d increase in hydrocarbon gas liquids consumption. The increases were offset by a 113,000 bbl/d reduction in unfinished oils consumption. The total annual increase for 2013 amounted to 470,000 bbl/d, or 2.5%, making it the largest annual increase since 2004.

For 2014, the EIA is forecasting a slight expected decrease in domestic liquids consumption. While total consumption rose by 170,000 bbl/d for the first quarter, an expected decline of an average 150,000 bbl/d during the second half of the year would reduce annual consumption by 0.2%. The trend isn’t expected to last into 2015, though—the September report increased the 2015 consumption forecast in the August “Short-Term Energy Outlook” by 100,000 bbbl/d, for an average increase of 150,000 bbl/d to 19.08 MMbbl/d.

The global view

Liquids production from OPEC countries in 2013 fell by 1.0 MMbbl/d to 29.9 MMbbl/d from the previous year, the EIA estimated. That trend is expected to continue, with the EIA predicting that OPEC crude oil production will decline by 300,000 bbl/d in 2014 and by 100,000 bbl/d in 2015, partly to accommodate growing production in non-OPEC countries.

In contrast, the EIA estimates that liquids production in non-OPEC countries grew by 1.4 MMbbl/d in 2013 to average 54.1 MMbbl/d for the year. Predictions for growth of 1.8 MMbbl/d in 2014 and 1.2 MMbbl/d in 2015 in non-OPEC countries indicate an increased optimism in U.S. production, especially. The U.S. is the leading contributor to forecast non-OPEC supply growth, increasing by 1.4 MMbbl/d in 2014 and 1.2 MMbbl/d in 2015 to make up nearly all of the predicted 2015 growth.

“Global oil supplies are expected to grow by 1.3 million barrels per day in 2015, with output growth in the United States accounting for about 91% of that amount,” Sieminski said. “The United States is expected to provide nine out of every 10 barrels of new global oil supplies in 2015.”