The underlying message delivered by OPEC energy ministers at the June seminar in Vienna was that the future looked bright for crude oil, but that view was largely predicated on a demand-driven recovery.

The likelihood that Brent will return to the mid-$70 per-barrel (bbl) range by 2016 looks increasingly imperiled, and with it, the prognosis for the most cash-strapped OPEC members is deteriorating.

In the wake of the Arab Spring when oil was comfortably trading above $100 per bbl, many OPEC countries accelerated their spending and expanded their patronage machines. Even if Brent revisited $70 per bbl, many in the cartel would still face the unpalatable prospect of having to reign in spending and risk social unrest in order to make the math work, according to Helima Croft, global head of commodities strategy at RBC Capital Markets in Toronto.

In assessing the economic status of each OPEC producer, RBC Capital Markets identified which OPEC countries are faring well, and which are “most at risk for a meltdown in the months ahead.”

“The spectrum of pain is wide indeed. At one end are the smaller, richer Gulf States such as the Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. They are best-placed to ride out a ‘lower-for-longer’ storm,” Croft observed in an Aug. 11 client note.

Some have in fact taken advantage of the low oil-price environment to get their fiscal houses in better order, by scaling back expensive subsidies, she added.

At the other end of the spectrum, are the poorer, politically volatile producers such as Algeria, Iraq, Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela. The “fragile five” were already facing substantial political and security challenges before last year’s crude sell-off, Croft said.

“For these OPEC members—Nigeria in particular—we see the greatest risk for geopolitical instability and production issues,” she noted. “Somewhere in the middle is Saudi Arabia, which has been able to maintain high spending but could eventually face a fiscal reckoning. The question remains, how does OPEC leadership define success for the no-cut strategy?

Croft continued: “The Saudis do not have as much clout as the market gives them credit for. The ability to execute their new energy strategy diminishes as competing regional countries ramp up production. Simply put, they have to compete for market share alongside everyone else, and that battle—particularly in Asia—is closer to the beginning than it is to the end.”

And while there are many contenders for the biggest OPEC loser over the last year, Iran has probably performed the best, relatively speaking, according to RBC Capital.

“Iran is our turn-around story of the year as it is poised to emerge from decades of economic and international isolation after the recently concluded nuclear deal,” Croft wrote. “Assuming it is implemented, the crippling sanctions will be lifted and Iran will be able to put between 375,000 barrels per day [bbl/d] and 500,000 bbl/d of additional crude on the market at the end of the 2016 second quarter. While some hardliners have denounced the deal, the citizenry has broadly celebrated it.”

Additional information about RBC Capital’s “OPEC Watch List,” can be foundhere.

Kristie Sotolongo can be reached at ksotolongo@hartenergy.com.