Analysts with research and consulting firm GlobalData said that a vote for an independent Scotland could negatively impact future oil production and development in the North Sea.

According to Gustavo Bianchotti, GlobalData’s senior upstream analyst for Europe, the Middle East and North Africa, and Matthew Ingham, GlobalData’s lead upstream analyst for the North Sea and Western Europe, several major decisions regarding future projects have been put on hold due to the vote, and investors are concerned about the possible effect of the change to the U.K.’s political landscape.

Bianchotti said: “Among other projects, such as the Statoil [ASA]-operated Bressay and Maersk-operated Culzean, the Chevron [Corp.]-operated Rosebank project’s final investment decision has already been postponed several times due to escalating costs. Tax reliefs and allowances introduced by the UK government will prove crucial to these projects being sanctioned within the next few years.

“Long-term contractual arrangements with licensees for guaranteed decommissioning tax relief and allowances for developing complex and challenging fields are both in place and ongoing. The way in which the heavy burden will be accounted for will likely be subject to intense negotiations between an independent Scotland and the U.K. government,” he said.

GlobalData also highlighted the threat that independence could sector confidence, which could impede both production and future development in the North Sea.

Ingham said: “In the event of a ‘yes’ vote, numerous uncertainties will face North Sea operators, including the ratification of maritime juridical boundaries, the taxing of cross-border pipelines, a new regulator and potential fiscal regime changes.

“Should Scotland become an independent country, its government will have to act swiftly to quell international oil companies’ fears and maintain industry confidence, especially if it wishes to sustain the record-breaking development expenditures of 2013,” he said.

Offshore