The Americas (North, Central and South America) are forecast to see renewable energy raise its share of electricity generation capacity from 7% in 2012 to 28% in 2030 (excluding the contribution of hydroelectric power), while the share of coal-fired capacity is expected to fall from 21% to 9%, according to a recent report from Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF).

The report, titled “BNEF 2030 Market Outlook,” forecasts that the Americas will add 943 gigawatts (GW) of gross new capacity by 2030, including replacement plants. Some 522 GW are expected to be added in the U.S., 341 GW in Latin America and 80 GW in Canada, according to the report.

“This will equate to $1.3 trillion of investment in new power generation capacity, with the largest single slice of that going to gas-fired plants at $314 billion benefitting from the persistence of low natural gas prices in North America following the shale gas boom. The figures are based on modeling of electricity market supply and demand, technology costs and policy development by country and region,” BNEF noted in a statement summarizing findings of the report.

Other renewable power generation technologies expected to attract significant investments during the time period to 2030 include rooftop photovoltaics (PVs) at $231 billion and onshore wind at $200 billion, according to BNEF.

“There will be smaller slices of investment going to nuclear (almost all in the U.S.), hydroelectric (mainly in Latin America), biomass-to-power, offshore wind and large-scale solar,” BNEF noted.

Commenting on the report’s findings, Michel DiCapua, head of Americas analysis for BNEF, said: “Two striking conclusions from our research: first, wind and solar will win bigger and bigger shares of the investment in new capacity as their technology costs go on falling; second, coal will be in rapid retreat, its share of generation in the Americas falling from 26% in 2012 to 17% in 2030.”

The research company’s model suggests that energy efficiency gains will mean that U.S. electricity demand rises at just 0.5% per year over 2014 to2030, much more slowly than GDP. In contrast, electricity demand is forecast to increase at 3% per year in Latin America on the back of rapid economic development, BNEF explained.

The U.S. will continue to enjoy natural gas prices of less than $5 per million Btu until 2024, before they start to rise sharply in response to the depletion of some of the main gas plays and to increased demand from power, industry and exports, the report noted.

“Between 2013 and 2030, the U.S. fleet of gas-fired power stations will increase by a net 134 GW,” according to BNEF.

Meanwhile, coal-fired capacity is projected to shrink by 109 GW, mainly due to being “out-competed by gas and renewables, but also partly because of regulatory curbs such as the standards announced in June by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,” BNEF said.

Global outlook

Globally, BNEF estimates about $7.7 trillion to be invested in new generating capacity by 2030, with 66% of it going to renewable technologies, including hydro. Out of the $5.1 trillion to be spent on renewables, Asia-Pacific is expected to account for $2.5 trillion, with $816 billion in the Americas, $967 billion in Europe and the rest of the world, including the Middle East and Africa, about $818 billion.

“Fossil fuels will retain the biggest share of power generation by 2030, at 44%, albeit down from 64% in 2013,” BNEF explained.

“Some 1.073 billion GW of new coal, gas and oil capacity worldwide will be added over the next 16 years, excluding replacement plants. The vast majority will be in developing countries seeking to meet the increased power demand that comes with industrialization, and also to balance variable generation sources such as wind and solar. Solar PVs and wind will increase their combined share of global generation from 3% last year to 16% in 2030,” BNEF noted.