NGL prices will rise 32% in 2017, joining the upswing in crude oil (27%) and natural gas (34%).

Sound good? It’s not just wishful thinking, but the outlook for the year from Mizuho Securities USA Inc. The forecast is based on assumptions of higher oil prices and rising ethane demand growth from the petrochemical sector. Mizuho cites S&P Global Platts analytics, which projects ethane demand growth to increase 15% year-over-year (yoy) to 1.2 million barrels per day (MMbbl/d).

Frac spread chart for Jan. 13. In its recent report, “Top 10 Upstream & Midstream Energy Themes in 2017,” Mizuho mentions five Gulf Coast petrochemical plants expected to be in service in late-2016 and through2017 that will add 333 Mbbl/d of ethane consumption. Through 2022, a total of 11 plants will boost demand by 763 Mbbl/d.

That echoes the optimism voiced this week by partners at the international law firm Sidley Austin LLP, who expect LNG plant completions and increased export opportunities, especially to Mexico, to propel natural gas prices.

On a more short-term basis, the price of the hypothetical NGL barrel fell 4% in the past week at Mont Belvieu, Texas, and 2.3% at Conway, Kan. The barrel remains a sturdy 74% higher than its price during the same week in 2016 at Mont Belvieu and 87% higher at Conway.

Natural gas prices slipped 8% to below $3 per million British thermal unitsat the Houston Ship Channel during the week before recovering. At Chicago Citygate, the descent reached 13% before sneaking back up.

Ethane tumbled at both hubs in the past week. At Mont Belvieu, the drop was 11%; at Conway, the price fell almost 12%. The yoy change was 53% higher at Mont Belvieu and 50% higher at Conway.

NGL prices for Jan. 13. Propane rose just 0.1 cent per gallon (gal) at Mont Belvieu, but it still carried the hub’s rally to a sixth week. At Conway, the price of propane slipped for the first time in six weeks.

Compared to the same week in 2016, when propane was on the brink of lows for the year at both hubs, propane is 102% higher at Mont Belvieu and 126% higher at Conway.

Butane dropped for the second straight week at Mont Belvieu, but was 96% above the price at this time last year. At Conway, butane rose for the sixth straight week to its highest level since November 2014.

Isobutane stumbled at both hubs, as well, following its dramatic run-up in December. Its Mont Belvieu price was 91% over its price at this time last year, with the Conway price 98% above that mark.

C5+ dipped at Conway, but remained above $1/gal for the 13th straight week. At Mont Belvieu, the C5+ rose to its highest point since June 2015.

Resin prices for Jan. 13. Storage of natural gas in the Lower 48 declined by 151 billion cubic feet (Bcf) in the week ended Jan. 6, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported. The decrease, more than the Bloomberg consensus of 143 Bcf, resulted in a total of 3.16 Tcf. The figure is 10.3% less than the 3.523 Tcf figure at the same time in 2016 and 0.1% below the five-year average of 3.164 Tcf.

Joseph Markman can be reached at jmarkman@hartenergy.com and @JHMarkman.