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You might be wondering what the “covfefe” is going on with the markets.
Well, propane inventories are well below average, so propane prices might be expected to rise. Nope. Propane prices declined last week. Ethane prices dipped, too, despite expectations that the U.S. supply will be less than 25 days’ worth by the end of the year.
And OPEC’s decision to extend its production cuts into 2018 was not enough to keep the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil above $50 per barrel.
It’s enough to make you want to throw up your hands and stack your drilling rigs (which might not be a bad idea, actually, given the outlook for WTI).
Prices changed little for NGL, and margins were mixed in the week shortened by the Memorial Day holiday. The price of the hypothetical NGL barrel was 15.8% higher than it was last Memorial Day at Mont Belvieu, Texas. At Conway, Kan., the price increase was 14.5%.
The price of natural gas swung up before settling lower for the week at the Houston Ship Channel, while at Chicago City Gate the price swung to a 4.4% decline. The New York Mercantile Exchange futures prices for benchmark Henry Hub natural gas was down to $2.84 per million British thermal units for 2019 and 2020.
Storage of natural gas in the Lower 48 increased by 81 billion cubic feet (Bcf) in the week ended May 26, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported. The increase, above the Bloomberg consensus of 77 Bcf, resulted in a total of 2.525 Tcf. The figure is 12.8% below the 2.895 Tcf figure at the same time in 2016 and 9.8% above the five-year average of 2.3 Tcf.
Natural gas storage injections over the past few weeks have been above analysts’ expectations, which En*Vantage sees as the factor in the price decreases. Typically, it is weather that triggers market movements, but it is too early to gauge how the upcoming summer will turn out.
AccuWeather predicts a hot, muggy summer for the Southern U.S., with wicked thunderstorms plaguing the Northwest and rainy weather keeping extreme heat at bay in the Northeast. New Orleans and Houston on the western Gulf Coast and the Carolinas on the East Coast may face tropical storms.
In short, summer will be hot and sometimes it will rain. And a bumper crop of hurricanes could emerge from the Atlantic.
Ethane lost 0.5 cents per gallon (gal) at Mont Belvieu and gained 0.3 cents/gal at Conway. The Mont Belvieu price is 20.5% above the price last year at this time, and Conway’s price is 23.3% higher. En*Vantage reports that ethane’s per gallon margin as a feedstock for ethylene is more than 4x that of naphtha, a crude oil distillate.
Propane prices were static at both hubs, but the EIA reported that U.S. inventories rose 7.9% to 47.1 million barrels (MMbbl) as of the week of May 26. That is 28.25 MMbbl, or 37.5%, less than the inventory last year at this time.
Joseph Markman can be reached at jmarkman@hartenergy.com and @JHMarkman.
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