As oil prices recover, the Bakken Shale will surpass the Eagle Ford in crude production by 2019 and U.S. tight oil output will reach 7.08 million barrels per day (MMbbl/d) by 2040, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected in its “Annual Energy Outlook 2016” Report.

Tight oil production accounted for 4.89 MMbbl/d in 2015, or 52% of total U.S. crude output. The EIA expects that figure to decline by 700 Mbbl/d in the 2015-2017 time frame as low oil prices hamper investment by E&Ps.

An expected recovery will benefit the Bakken Shale in North Dakota and Montana, with production projected to reach 1.3 MMbbl/d in 2019, allowing it to pass the Eagle Ford as the most prolific tight-oil producing formation in the U.S.

Houston-based Stratas Advisors, in its latest “NAS Shale View” from Aug. 12, agreed that the Bakken will catch and surpass Eagle Ford but has sharply lower production estimates.

The Stratas forecast shows a shallower three-year decline for the Bakken, from 1.2 MMbbl/d in 2015 to 1.03 MMbbl/d in 2018, which will allow the play to overtake the Eagle Ford a year earlier. The Texas play will not regain its edge until 2029, when its production returns to 1.28 MMbbl/d, near its 2015 level.

By comparison, the EIA projects Bakken production to continue to rise to 2.3 MMbbl/d by 2040, when it will account for almost one-third of total U.S. tight oil output.

On a long-term macro level, however, Stratas Advisors takes a much more optimistic view than the EIA. The analysts project 7.64 MMbbl/d in their U.S. forecast for 2040, or 8% higher than the government’s estimate.

The EIA expects natural gas production from shale plays to steadily increase through 2040, with the Appalachian Marcellus and Utica plays pushing past 40 billion cubic feet per day to provide just over half of U.S. shale gas.

Joseph Markman can be reached at jmarkman@hartenergy.com and @JHMarkman.