The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on July 25 released a report projecting that world energy consumption will grow by 56% between 2010 and 2040.

The EIA’s “International Energy Outlook 2013” expects world energy use, which was 524 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2010, will rise to 630 quadrillion Btu in 2020. In 2040, the number will jump to 820 quadrillion Btu.

Much of the growth in energy consumption is expected to occur in countries such as India and China, where demand will be driven by strong, long-term economic growth.

According to the EIA report, renewable energy and nuclear power are the world’s fastest-growing energy sources. Each section is expected to grow 2.5% per year through 2040. Fossil fuels, however, will continue to supply almost 80% of world energy use through 2040.

Natural gas – bolstered by increasing supplies of tight gas, shale gas and coalbed methane – is the fastest-growing fossil fuel. Global natural gas consumption will increase by 1.7% through 2040, according to the report. Coal use is expected to grow faster than petroleum until about 2030, mostly because of increases in China’s consumption of coal and tepid growth in liquids demand.

The industrial sector will continue to account for the largest share of energy consumption. Based on current policies and regulations, worldwide energy-related carbon dioxide emissions, which were 31 billion metric tons in 2010, will increase to 36 billion metric tons in 2020 and then to 45 billion metric tons in 2040, a 46% increase.

Liquid fuels

World use of petroleum and other liquid fuels, which was 87 million barrels per day in 2010, will jump to 97 million barrels per day in 2020 and 115 million barrels per day in 2040. Growth in liquids use will be in the transportation and industrial sectors. Although advances in non-liquids transportation technologies are anticipated, they will not be enough to offset the rising demand for transportation services worldwide, according to the EIA.

Furthermore, despite rising fuel prices, use of liquids for transportation will increase by an average of 1.1% per year, or 38% overall, from 2010 to 2040. The transportation sector will account for 63% of the total increase in liquid fuel use during the 30-year period. The remainder is attributed to the industrial sector, where the chemicals industry continues to consume large quantities of petroleum. The use of liquids will decline in the other end-use sectors and for electric power generation.

Natural gas

World natural gas consumption is predicted to increase 64%, from 113 trillion cubic feet in 2010 to 185 trillion cubic feet in 2040. Although the global recession help bring on an estimated decline of 3.6 trillion cubic feet in natural gas use in 2009, robust demand returned in 2010 with an increase of 7.7 trillion cubic feet, or 4% higher than demand in 2008.

Natural gas continues to be the “fuel of choice” for the electric power and industrial sectors in many of the world's regions, the report stated. In addition, it is an attractive alternative fuel for new power generation plants because of relatively low capital costs. The industrial and electric power sectors together account for 77% of the total projected world increase in natural gas consumption.

The largest production increases from 2010 to 2040 are expected to occur in Europe and Eurasia (18.9 trillion cubic feet), parts of the Americas (15.9 trillion cubic feet); and the Middle East (15.6 trillion cubic feet). The United States and Russia will each increase natural gas production by about 12 trillion cubic feet, together accounting for nearly one-third of the total increase in world gas production.

In response to the release of the report, Erica Bowman, chief economist at America’s Natural Gas Alliance, said, “EIA’s Annual International Energy Outlook makes it clear that natural gas must play an expanded role in the world to meet growing future energy demand, and the United States, with its vast natural gas resource base, can be a major influencer in the global energy picture."

“The outlook rightly calls natural gas a ‘fuel of choice’ for the electric power sector because of its relatively low carbon intensity, low capital costs and favorable heat rates," Bowman said. "As the outlook makes clear, with an overall growth in energy consumption of 56% by 2040, the world is going to need all forms of energy to meet growing demand. With major growth in reserves and production, North American natural gas is in a strong competitive position.”