The U.S. energy industry has written “an amazing story, really, when you think about what has happened in the shale oil and gas space” in the past decade, the federal government’s man with the energy numbers told the North American Gas Forum in Washington, D.C., Monday.

Adam Sieminski, administrator of the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), told the conference in his keynote address that the agency currently projects crude oil production could climb to as high as 13 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in the next decade before leveling off.

In contrast, “we don’t see a plateau for natural gas,” he added. The EIA currently credits the unconventional shale plays with producing around 35 billion cubic feet per day-- “that’s over half of our domestic gas production,” Sieminski pointed out. Oil output from the shale plays currently runs around 4 million bbl/d, he said, or a little less than half of U.S. output. But shale’s share of both hydrocarbons will continue to rise.

He discussed differences in the EIA’s long-term Annual Energy Outlook and its more current--and more precise--short-term Energy Outlook.

“We’re beginning to see some daylight between the [reports’] numbers,” Sieminski added, indicating the industry continues to beat even the EIA’s rather optimistic production projections. “I’m pretty sure we’re going to show even more production when we come out with the 2015 Annual Energy Outlook in December… Production just keeps growing,” he said.

The administrator said the agency currently projects the ratio of oil-to-gas prices will narrow in the next decade, and added, “we project there will be plenty of gas around and plenty of interesting places for it to go.” Power generation will take a larger and larger share of gas output as the government encourages a move away from coal-fired generation. Industrial demand also will grow, but use of gas as a transportation fuel will remain a comparatively small market, he predicted.

Refining is one domestic industry making heavy use of gas and that often gets overlooked, he said. Refining is an energy-intensive business and foreign refiners must use more costly oil to fire their plants while U.S. refiners turn to gas. “That gives our refiners a distinct advantage,” Sieminski added.

“It doesn’t mean we’re running out of gas, just because we’re using more of it,” he added in a discussion of growing demand from industries as diverse as food to fertilizer. “The U.S. will become a net exporter of gas in the next few years” with Cheniere Energy Inc.’s Sabine Pass plant leading the way in a growing LNG business. Cheniere (NYSE MKT: LNG) projects it will load its first LNG in late 2015.

The nation still imports a small amount of LNG as well as shrinking volumes of Canadian gas. Gas exports to Canada and Mexico will continue to grow, he said.

The steady rise in gas production has come even as the number of rigs drilling for gas has declined. “I know this is a gas forum but you’re going to have to understand a little something about oil” because the uptick has been almost entirely from associated gas. “That makes for an interesting dynamic in drilling activities,” he said.

The Marcellus/Utica plays are the only gas-prone shale plays that see a lot of drilling activity right now, and that’s because of their high liquids content. Sieminski said drilling in dry gas plays, which dropped off as gas prices slumped, will pick up in future years as the price of gas narrows the ratio to oil prices.

A question-and-answer session following his address included a discussion of the “peak oil” theory that the world is slowly running out of hydrocarbons. Sieminski, economist that he is, said he is troubled by the theory because it depends on a view that only the resource base matters, “that prices don’t matter and technology doesn’t matter.”

The unconventional shales have proved that isn’t true, he added, pointing to the declining rig count --even as production rises-- as an example of improving technology. “What we’re finding is that rig productivity continues to grow. Rigs can drill more wells and drill them faster, and the wells are producing more gas and more oil.”

He speculated that one important, still unfound, technological leap could create a substantial increase in reserves and production. Sieminski pointed to the comparatively low recovery rate from unconventional shales. Present recovery rates are estimated to be as low as 6% in some plays. Increasing that rate to only 9% through improved technology could have a dramatic impact on the industry, he said.