This excerpt is from Stratas Advisors’ Africa and Global Refining & Products services.

Africa’s crude oil reserves (129.2 billion barrels) rank fifth in the world, behind the Middle East, Latin America, North America and the CIS, according to the BP Review of World Energy 2015. The region also has significant natural gas reserves. According to Stratas Advisors’ data, Africa’s liquids production was 8.6 million b/d in 2014. After a recovery of production in 2012, continuing unrest in Libya and a significant drop in its production again reduced total regional output.

Based on global market demand, the annual growth rate beginning in 2014 is projected to average 0.8%, with total liquids production reaching a peak of 9.3 million b/d by 2025. Production is then projected to decline to 9.2 million b/d by 2035. This relatively slow increase takes into consideration global developments and demand for African supplies. North American tight (shale) oil production will continue to have a significant impact on global crude oil trade flows, affecting demand for crude oil from some African countries such as Libya, Nigeria and Algeria. However, it is expected that African crude oil producers will have a potential to produce higher volumes if required by global markets.

In 2014, crude oil production from two countries in North Africa (Algeria and Libya), along with two countries in West Africa (Angola and Nigeria), reached 60% of the continent’s liquids. Condensate and NGLs produced in these four countries are included in the NGL portion of the chart. This split also illustrates Libya’s continuing drop in production in 2014, as its African share decreased to 5.4% from 10% in 2013, and 14% in 2012.

Nigerian production will remain the main source of African crude oil. If not hindered by militant attacks, that country’s production of crude oil, condensate and NGL could keep its current level of about 2.5 million b/d through 2020, then increase to about 2.6 million b/d by 2025 and potentially to 3.0 million b/d by 2035.

In Angola, an OPEC member since January 2007, a notable amount of new production capacity is scheduled to come online in the next 10 years, but the capacity of existing reservoirs will strongly decline during the same time frame. Thus, Stratas Advisors projections show Angolan production to remain stable at about 1.7 million to 1.8 million b/d in spite of announced plans to reach 2.0 million b/d by 2020.

Based on the latest exploration developments, Uganda and Ghana could add nearly 4.0 billion barrels of crude oil reserves. Although Ghana started production of about 80,000 b/d in 2010 and plans to reach 190,000 b/d by the end of 2016, Uganda is not expected to reach commercial production before 2020. As much as 400,000 b/d of crude oil could be produced in Uganda and Ghana by 2020 under perfect conditions, but this volume is not expected to be reached by the given time frame and market conditions.

In North Africa, Libya’s production capacity was around 1.6 million b/d in 2010. Production in 2011 dropped to an average of about 0.5 million b/d. It has, however, recovered much faster than expected, and pre-war levels were mostly restored in 2012. Even so, developments in Libya in past two years again resulted in a reduction in regional crude oil production in 2013, and even further down to below 0.5 million b/d in 2014. Achieving a further increase in liquids production to nearly 2.0 million b/d planned for 2035 depends significantly on the new Libyan government’s ability to ensure stability and security in the country and negotiate continued foreign investment. In the current analysis, a liquid production level of about 1.1 million b/d is projected for the studied period.

Several relatively small capacity additions in Algeria have been brought online or were planned to be brought online before 2015, helping to offset declines. However, the change in Algerian leadership during the “Arab Spring” of 2011 delayed some of these plans. Algerian crude oil and condensate production capacity is expected to increase from 1.6 million b/d in 2014 to about 1.7 million b/d by 2030. The share of condensate and NGL production will increase significantly and offset declining crude oil.