Crude oil prices registered five straight days of gains by the middle of this week, a rally that analysts attributed to the effects of Tropical Storm Cindy’s tour of the Gulf of Mexico. Reeling NGL prices, however, stumbled to their lowest levels in seven and a half months.
Natural gas prices were on a slow and steady rise, too. But with the exception of a miniscule bump in isobutane at Conway, Kan., all NGL showed thinner margins than the prior week.
The good news is that oil should be on the mend no matter what the weather does.
“Fundamentally, we feel that U.S. crude balances are improving, but it is just not happening fast enough for traders,” En*Vantage said in a recent report. “With U.S. crude production increasing and OPEC production cuts being partially offset by production increases by Libya and Nigeria, there is little confidence that global oil markets can rebalance anytime soon.”
Despite the bearish sentiments from traders for most of this year, there are far more upside price risks for crude than downside. The volatile situation in Venezuela alone, En*Vantage argues, could be enough to push oil back to $50 per barrel (bbl) by fall.
Ethane fell by 2.8% at Mont Belvieu, Texas, in the past week and by 5.5% at Conway. That puts the average ethane price for the week at just barely above where it was a year ago at Mont Belvieu and a hefty 9.4% below the 2016 price at this time at Conway. Gulf Coast ethylene plants did not appear to have been negatively impacted by the recent tropical storm, En*Vantage said, and fundamentals point to higher demand and improved prices for the second half of this year.
Propane languished below 60 cents per gallon (gal) for the third week in a row at Mont Belvieu to its lowest point since late November. At Conway, the sub-60 cents streak reached four weeks, though the price was only the second-lowest weekly average for the year—propane dipped below 54 cents/gal in late March.
Butane sank to just above 66 cents/gal, a low for 2017 at Mont Belvieu and the lowest price at that hub since mid-September. The price dipped below 66 cents/gal at Conway for the first time since late September.
Isobutane also set a low for the year at Mont Belvieu, slipping below 70 cents/gal for the first time in nine and a half months. The Conway price was also its lowest since September and marked the third straight week below 70 cents/gal.
Storage of natural gas in the Lower 48 increased by 46 billion cubic feet (Bcf) in the week ended June 23, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported. The increase, below the Bloomberg consensus of 50 Bcf and the HFI Research forecast of 53 Bcf, resulted in a total of 2.816 Tcf. The figure is 10.2% below the 3.135 Tcf figure at the same time in 2016 and 6.9% above the five-year average of 2.635 Tcf.
Joseph Markman can be reached at jmarkman@hartenergy.com and @JHMarkman.
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